SL vs Pak T20I Probable Playing 11: Toss Call, and Who Should Open for Both Teams?

Sri Lanka against Pakistan at Pallekele isn’t simply a game both teams need to win – it’s a test of what selections work. Each side possesses sufficient ability to control a section of the game, yet has also shown enough inconsistency recently to lose in just six deliveries.

The major issue isn’t “who is in good form?” as much as “who is appropriate for the opening twelve overs here?” Pallekele has already seen a slow, turning afternoon game and a difficult night chase during this Super 8 stage.

Sri Lanka are changing their team after successive batting failures, and Pakistan are trying to find a balance between consistency – Babar – and the more aggressive players around him.

With Matheesha Pathirana and Wanindu Hasaranga unavailable, Sri Lanka’s bowling line-up almost selects itself, so the genuine discussion is about the top of the batting order.

Deep Dive

What team selection must deliver

This is a night match (28 Feb, 7:00 pm local time) where the first innings can feel like batting on a different pitch than the second. This does not automatically mean a preference for chasing, but it does benefit sides that save wickets during the difficult early overs and still have players who can hit boundaries at the end.

For Sri Lanka, the immediate problem is surviving the powerplay. They were 34/5 inside the first six overs against England at Pallekele, and never got their chase going.

For Pakistan, the issue is building momentum in the middle overs without losing their structure. Against England, their top order gave them a base, but the innings finished at 164/9 – acceptable, but not intimidating – and they still lost the chase.

Likely playing 11 and sensible teams

SL vs Pak T20I likely playing 11: the most sensible teams

These are the most probable XIs if both teams favour continuity from their recent Super 8 teams, with only the most sensible “horses for courses” adjustments.

Sri Lanka probable XI

• Pathum Nissanka
• Kusal Mendis (wk)
• Charith Asalanka
• Pavan Rathnayake
• Kamindu Mendis
• Dasun Shanaka (c)
• Dunith Wellalage
• Dushan Hemantha
• Dushmantha Chameera
• Maheesh Theekshana
• Dilshan Madushanka

Why this XI works: it’s Sri Lanka’s most balanced combination of batting depth and spin control, and is the team they played in their latest Super 8 match.

The likely batting order reality: Asalanka is key. If Sri Lanka are 30/2, he needs to bat as though he is at No. 3; if they are 50/0, he can bat like a No. 4 and select his match-ups.

The single change they’ll seriously think about: Kamil Mishara instead of Rathnayake if Sri Lanka decide they need a specialist opener, rather than asking Mendis to take early risks. Mishara opened against England at Pallekele.

Pakistan probable XI

• Sahibzada Farhan
• Saim Ayub
• Babar Azam
• Salman Agha (c)
• Fakhar Zaman
• Usman Khan (wk)
• Shadab Khan
• Mohammad Nawaz
• Shaheen Shah Afridi
• Naseem Shah
• Abrar Ahmed

Why this XI works: it provides Pakistan with three spin options (Shadab/Nawaz/Abrar) for the overs that can turn at Pallekele, while still keeping two excellent fast bowlers for the new ball and the death.

The most common alternative: if Pakistan expect a night with heavy dew, they could change Abrar for Faheem Ashraf to add a third seam bowler who can bowl hard lengths and cutters with a wet ball. (Pakistan already have this option in the squad.)

Toss call at Pallekele: bat first or chase?

Recent evidence is important here.

In the day-night game at Pallekele, England scored 146/9 and still won by 51, with Sri Lanka bowled out for 95 – a match which showed “the pitch held and punished errors.”

In the night game at Pallekele, Pakistan made 164/9 and England chased 166/8 – a chase that was never easy, but got home.

Now consider the weather: a clear, hot day (around 33°C) and a much colder low (around 15°C) suggests at least a little evening moisture, even if it isn’t the “ball-turns-into-soap” kind every night.

My toss call: bowl first.

If you are Pakistan, you want Shaheen and Naseem with a hard new ball before any late evening slickness appears, and you trust your batting depth to chase 160–175 with a calmer approach than England’s. If you are Sri Lanka, you require early wickets to stop Pakistan from setting a 175+ pace, and you trust your spinners to benefit before the ball gets wet.

The single condition that changes it: if the pitch looks clearly dry and abrasive at toss time (dusty areas, bare ends), batting first becomes attractive because spin can become a weapon later – especially for teams that can reach 170 without panic.

Who should open for Sri Lanka?

Sri Lanka’s opening choice is less about “the correct combination” and more about reducing early danger against Shaheen’s angle and Pakistan’s new-ball attack.

Best opening pair

(performance-first): Pathum Nissanka + Kusal Mendis

This is your highest-skill partnership and keeps your best players facing the most balls. Sri Lanka recently tried Mendis at the top, and although the result was not what they hoped, the reasoning still applies for a must-win: do not hide your best batters from the most difficult overs.

Why it works at Pallekele: Nissanka is your boundary-scorer when the ball is hardest; Mendis is your risk-controller who can still find gaps in the field. Together, they can aim for a “no-drama” powerplay: 40–45 with one wicket maximum, then take advantage when the pace drops.

The tactical adjustment: if Shaheen is swinging it and the ball is moving, Mendis should take the first over more often than not – he plays late, and it prevents Nissanka from being forced into big shots too soon.

Nissanka and Kamil Mishara, Mendis at three –

Mishara started against England in this same place, so the team clearly wants him to have a clear job at the beginning.

If Sri Lanka choose Mishara, they need to tell him to hit the ball for four when he can, but to otherwise just take singles and let Nissanka set the speed of the innings.

Who shouldn’t open

(in this game): Asalanka

Asalanka is the man to relieve pressure in the seventh to fifteenth overs. Should he open and be dismissed quickly, Sri Lanka would lose the only batsman who could turn 45/2 into 95/3 without taking unnecessary risks.

Who should open for Pakistan

Pakistan have in effect answered this question in their last game at Pallekele.

Best opening pair

Sahibzada Farhan + Saim Ayub

They opened together against England, and Farhan’s 63 runs showed the pair can deal with early movement in the ball and still make runs.

Why this suits Sri Lanka’s attack: Sri Lanka’s strongest hold comes when Theekshana and Wellalage bowl with a dry ball and set fields which restrict singles. Opening with Farhan + Saim gives Pakistan a left-right combination at the start, forces Theekshana to alter his angle often later, and lets Babar play his favourite job as the number three to steady things.

The main instruction: Saim doesn’t need to “win” the powerplay – he needs to still be there in the seventh over. If Saim gives Farhan 18–22 balls of support, Pakistan can have Theekshana bowl his second over to a settled batsman, not a new one.

Alternative opening plan

(if Pakistan want to be as safe as possible): Farhan + Babar, with Saim at 3

This is the careful thing to do if Pakistan are afraid of losing early wickets. It lowers risk, but can also reduce how many runs they can get – a problem if Sri Lanka bowl well early and the pitch is holding the ball.

The contests that will decide both teams

Shaheen’s first spell vs top order

Sri Lanka’s most likely top three are all right-handed if they pick Nissanka–Mendis–Asalanka. That means Shaheen’s angle and how well he bowls his length will be the first big test of their intention. If Sri Lanka lose two wickets early, their “likely XI” will suddenly not have much genuine power to finish the innings.

That’s why the opening pair is as important as the XI itself. Pick openers who can put their pride to one side and take the boring single when a four isn’t possible.

Pakistan spin trio vs middle overs

If Pakistan play Abrar with Shadab and Nawaz, they are basically saying: “We think the pitch will grip enough for spin to win overs 8–14.” This makes sense given how England’s spin bowlers and changes of bowling controlled Sri Lanka at Pallekele.

Sri Lanka’s answer is Kamindu + Shanaka as the “matchup players”. Kamindu can upset the bowlers’ line with late use of the wrists; Shanaka can hit spin straight when others are stuck trying to hit across the line.

Theekshana and Wellalage vs left-handed power

Pakistan’s left-handed batsmen (Saim and Fakhar) will decide whether Sri Lanka’s spin bowlers can bowl attacking lengths or will be forced to bowl flat, defensive balls. If Fakhar comes in with 9 overs left and the ball is still dry, Sri Lanka can set deep fields and tempt him to hit a big shot. If he comes in when dew is starting, the game changes – the ball skids and reduces mis-hits, and “safe” fields become targets.

What each XI signals about intent

What each team’s XI tells us about their plan

You can read each side’s intention from one or two choices.

• If Sri Lanka pick Mishara: they want a clear job for a batsman at the top and are happy with Mendis as the man to steady things at 3.
• If Sri Lanka stick with Rathnayake: they’re giving more importance to bowling/fielding balance and trusting Mendis to open without changing the team’s shape.
• If Pakistan pick Abrar: they’re betting on grip and middle-overs wickets.
• If Pakistan pick Faheem: they’re betting on dew and using pace-off bowling.

Quick likely XI summary

Quick “likely XI” summary with short statements

• Sri Lanka: made to hold back with spin (Theekshana + Wellalage) and defend totals if their top four survive the powerplay.
• Pakistan: made to attack at the start (Farhan + Saim), control the speed of the chase with Babar/Salman, then finish with Fakhar/Shadab in the last five overs.

Main Points

• SL vs Pak T20I likely XI leans toward staying the same, with Sri Lanka’s main bowling group fixed and Pakistan probably adding one more specialist spin or pace bowler depending on dew.
• Toss call: bowl first, unless the pitch looks clearly dry and rough – then batting first is the better chance.
• Sri Lanka’s best opening pair is Nissanka + Kusal Mendis for the most skill at the top; Mishara is the choice based on a clear job.
• Pakistan should keep Farhan + Saim as the opening pair after the England game, with Babar at 3 to steady things if early wickets fall.
• With Hasaranga and Pathirana out, Sri Lanka’s room for error is smaller – the batting has to do more than it usually would at home.

Conclusion

This SL vs Pak T20I is likely to be decided before the best parts start – by who survives the first 18 balls and who controls overs 7 to 14. That’s why the likely playing 11 matters, but the opening pair matters even more.

If Sri Lanka want to stop their losing run, they need their best batsmen facing the hardest bowling and their captain’s intention shown in better shot selection. If Pakistan want to keep their Super 8 hopes alive, they need the Farhan–Saim pair to be steady enough for Babar and Salman to time the chase, not save it.