IND vs NZ 5th T20I: India’s finish-line test in Thiruvananthapuram after the Vizag jolt

When looking back on the series between India and New Zealand it’s clear that India have secured the win, but have yet to completely sort out the fourth T20I in Vizag, where they got a nasty shock when their top order fell apart, and found themselves scrambling against New Zealand’s more intelligent over bowling.

The 5th T20I at Greenfield Isn’t a Dead Rubber

Well-known as a high-stakes match, the 5th t20i at Greenfield International Stadium in Thiruvananthapuram on Saturday, January 31st, 7:00 PM IST, will be anything but a dead rubber. Coming off a 3-1 deficit, India can either walk away with a 4-1 lead and a clear picture of their strengths and weaknesses, or let a single uncharacteristic night turn into a festering doubt.

New Zealand, who have been struggling in this series, finally got the validation they were looking for in the fourth match where they scored 215/7, and then knocked India out for 165 in just 18.4 overs, a 50-run victory that felt like a slap in the face to the Indians.

Coming down to the final game, it’s about one thing, control. Control over the powerplay, the middle overs and even the frayed nerves that kick in when the dew turns the feel of the ball.

What India Did in the First Three Matches

India were completely on top in the first three games, and in each of those games, they showcased a particular skill that stands them in good stead.

In Nagpur they piled up 238/7 and had a mountain of batting left and came very close to posting a humongous score thanks to Abhishek Sharma’s 84 off just 35 balls and Rinku Singh’s 44 off 20. Basically turning a very strong innings into a total that was bound to require the Kiwis to take some risks from the very start.

In Raipur, they absolutely turned around what should have been a nail-biting chase and made it look almost routine. New Zealand managed 208/6, and India breezed past that with 209/3 in just 15.2 overs, getting off to a rocky start with just 6/2 in the first 1.1 overs, but then exploded into life with Ishan Kishan’s 76 off 32 and Suryakumar Yadav’s 82 off 37.

In Guwahi, they hardly let the match get started, New Zealand mustered up a meager 153/9, and India chased 155/2 in 10 overs, completely annihilating the game, thanks in no small part to Abhishek’s 68 off 20 and Suryakumar’s 57 off 26.

How New Zealand Put It Together in Vizag

Beating India wasn’t a fluke, it was a well-orchestrated game that was based on a handful of fundamental principles, when New Zealand finally got their act together.

Coming hustling over out of the gates, Devon Conway and Tim Seifert smashed 100 runs in just 8.2 overs, forcing India to try and defend with the wrong fields and sending the ball down to batsmen who were already well set.

Mitchell Santner then took control of the middle overs with a calm and rational approach and wrapped up the game with a tidy 3/26.

New Zealand’s fielding was also at the top of their game, sending India wickets tumbling and even the 65 off 23 by Shivam Dube couldn’t drag them over the line.

What Greenfield Can Do Under Lights

Greenfield Stadium has a very different atmosphere under lights, with sea-level air, a quick outfield and a two-paced pitch that can make you miss your lengths.

Coming into Saturday’s game, Greenfield has a neat bit of symmetry, the first international match ever played here was a T20I between India and New Zealand back in 2017, which India won by six runs, and has now been a stage for five T20I games in total.

The sort of game that Greenfield can stage has been hinted at by that 2017 match: tight phases, and a lot of bowling that gets rewarded if it hits the pitch hard. Coming down the stretch is a lot easier too if the rain turns up and makes the ball wet.

India’s World Cup XI-Style Checklist

Well-known for their ‘World Cup XI’ style of play, India are sure to want to test themselves on all three fronts.

Can their top order score quickly without squandering early wickets, can their spinners contain the 7-15 phase without allowing boundaries, and can their death bowlers keep the last four overs under a run-a-ball-and-a-half even when the batsmen are smashing the ball all over the place.

The Wicketkeeper-Batsman Problem and Kishan’s Value

When it comes to India’s lineup, the spot for the wicketkeeper-batsman is the biggest challenge. Sanju Samson has shown promise, but the series has demonstrated that a batting collapse can occur rapidly if the top three do not provide stability.

Coming up against New Zealand, India faced a problem with a batting short-handed unit, and it was a significant issue with the 4th game when Ishan Kishan was out of commission with a minor problem, and resulted in the momentum of the chase being shattered by the early loss of wickets.

If Kishan is fully fit, though, he is a huge asset to the team. Bringing left-handed chaos to the top of the order and has the capability to kill a chase off in just 15 to 20 balls, as was seen in the Raipur match.

Roles for Rinku and Dube

India need to be honest about roles within the team. Rinku Singh has been at his best when he gets in with a clear run and a set target, he is essentially a finisher, and isn’t the person they want to send in to salvage a sinking ship every time.

Dube’s raw power is now impossible to ignore, he should be deployed like a warhead, and not just called upon as a last resort.

India’s Spin Options vs New Zealand’s Right-Handers

India’s problem in the bowling department is how to secure wickets in the middle overs. Kuldeep Yadav provides a top-notch wrist-spin threat, Ravi Bishnoi delivers searing pace through the air, and Varun Chakaravarthy brings in awkward angles and irregular paces. India can pick between all-out attack and careful control when facing New Zealand’s predominantly right-handed middle order, and the top T20 teams always seem to figure out a way to get both.

New Zealand’s Approach: Santner as the Pivot

New Zealand’s XI feels rock-steady with Santner as the pivot, their effectiveness depends on how much faith they put in their slow bowlers and whether their seamers are able to keep the Indians at bay with unrelenting hard lengths and wide lines.

Abhishek’s Early Overs and the Powerplay Swing

The one thing that can swing the final game in India’s favor is Abhishek Sharma’s match-up with the hard-hitting first two overs. Abhishek’s series has been explosive, 84 off 35 in Nagpur, 68 off 20 in Guwahi, and then getting out to a first-ball delivery in Vizag, it’s that trade-off between high impact and volatility.

New Zealand will be sending down quick balls at him and trying to get him into trouble with width that lures a slap, and if he can weather the first 12 balls, India’s powerplay becomes a very different issue, as the field opens up and his strongest shots start to find space.

Santner vs Suryakumar and India’s Left-Right Plan

They need Deepak Hooda to opt for a more conservative, yet effective scoring strategy, when India’s looking to control the game. Coming rushing down the wicket with the aim of hitting massive sixes won’t work. They’re better off with hard-driven twos and a couple of well-placed fours.

Coming up against Santner, Suryakumar Yadav is going to be facing a challenge to get past the New Zealander’s choke overs. If Suryakumar is hitting the ball cleanly, India won’t experience a mid-game slump. They’ll basically have a second powerplay, and his innings in Raipur and Guwati were so impressive that they completely turned around the bowling plans.

Santner will try to stop SKY getting the easy release shots, so will be planting himself right behind the crease, blocking the shorter boundary and inviting the slog-sweep to the longer side. It’s up to India to use a left-right combination around Santner, so that he can’t nail down a single line and a single field.

If SKY gets past Santner’s toughest two overs without slowing down, India are usually 15-20 runs ahead of where the opposition wants them to be.

Dube’s Timing and New Zealand’s Fields

Dube’s huge innings in Vizag showed us that he can make a chase feel possible again with his aggressive batting. One of his secrets is that he doesn’t need pace on the ball to clear the rope and doesn’t need pinpoint accuracy to do damage either.

Well-known for their short-pitched bowling, New Zealand will try to make Dube hit his shots into the bigger areas. They’re also counting on the wide yorker, especially if the dew is well under control and the ball is gripping a bit. India can help Dube out by timing his arrival. Coming around the 11th to 13th overs, he can target the bowlers who are trying to hang on, not the specialists.

Death Overs: Bumrah, Arshdeep, and the Last Four

Coming face-to-face with Seifert and Phillips, India have a solid plan.

Their death bowling, courtesy of Bumrah and Arshdeep, is still top-notch. He gives you the edge to sail past the blockhole by a hair, not by a mile, when Arshdeep Singh delivers the ball.

Well-known, if India manage to control New Zealand in overs 17 through to 20, the run-chase becomes very much a straightforward affair, but if New Zealand somehow get fifty runs in the last four, the whole thing can suddenly feel like a one-over snafu for Greenfield.

Adjustments After Vizag

India don’t need a complete overhaul after one loss, a couple of clean adjustments would suffice.

They could be more cunning in the initial six overs with the bat, as in Vizag, where they found themselves 9/2 off just 1.6 overs and then started chasing from a difficult position. There’s no problem with being aggressive, but giving away wickets isn’t the answer. A 50/1 powerplay is often more valuable than a 60/3 one, especially when facing Santner.

Coming up against a team that’s in full swing, the bowling plan must be tightened, and in Vizag, Seifert and Conway received too many balls in their sweet spots, which India can’t live with.

They need to be fed half-baked presents, short, wide and down the leg side, rather than perfect, full-blooded shots.

New Zealand’s Tweaks: Discipline Without Being Predictable

New Zealand’s turn for a tweak, they need to replicate the discipline they’re so good at, but not just the intent. When they’ve lost in this series, it’s because they’ve let India take one easy over, which has turned into two, and that’s when the game has slipped away from them.

They need a flexible bowling approach, with fields that change quickly, unpredictable lengths and using Santner as a killer blow, not a calming influence.

Momentum Swings and the Live Numbers

If you’re into watching the game unfold, you’ll see that the momentum has shifted twice, immediately after the powerplay and again around the 15th over, when the captains decide to either attack or defend. The numbers in live markets follow this swing closely, especially on Sky Exch.

The thing is, this format will knock the stuffing out of any certainties.

One over can kill a plan that was looking absolutely spotless for fourteen overs.

What Each Side Is Really Trying to Do

India still have several ways to get the better of New Zealand, they can annihilate them with a massive batting performance, or with a 175 chase that’s calm and calculated, or even by making the most of a grippy pitch.

When it comes to the 5th T20I against New Zealand in the Ind-NZ series, the real plan for New Zealand is to take control of the powerplay, let Santner run the middle, and make India hit towards the longer boundary as the scoreboard starts mounting pressure on them. The Vizag game has made that particular route very much a reality.

India, looking to tie the series, must win the first six overs of their innings, whether they bat first or chase, and then come out of that phase with wickets in hand, in order to seal the series, they will need to make sure that they do not lose early wickets, or New Zealand will feel that the door is open.

Series Recap and What Still Matters

Coming into the series, India were leading 3-1, but the Vizag thumping (NZ 215/7, India 165 all out in 18.4 overs) showed the ugly face of a chase after the initial wickets have fallen.

India’s strongest performances in the series have been marked by a ruthless display of batting,.

238/7 In Nagpur, 209/3 in 15.2 overs in Raipur, and 155/2 in ten overs in Guwati.

New Zealand’s biggest trump card remains Santner, who can dominate the middle overs and keep a calm head in the face of the increasing complexity of the game.

It’s been the powerplay that’s seen the sharpest swing of the series, and this can be attributed to the way Abhishek and SKY took over the show and dictated the flow. Greenfield under lights is where disciplined plans, aggressive batting has won games.

Match Reference Table